Fall 2026 Cover Crop Seed Pricing: What's Changed and Why

0:00 Hey everybody, Keith Burns and Zach Lauck here with Green Cover and we would just wanted to give you an update on the state of pricing right now with cereal grains, in particular cover crop cereals, because there are some changes. There have been some price moves and we just wanted to share a little bit about what has been happening in the market and why that's been going on.

0:23 So, Zach is our main seed buyer now. He works with the majority of our growers and our other sources where we purchase seed. And so, wanted to have Zach on to just share what he's seeing with current market conditions. So, Zach, what are you seeing out there for the market conditions and price changes, particularly in the cereals that will be planted this fall?

0:47 Yeah, so kind of like a lot of the country felt this year once wheat or small grain harvest got here, there was a lot of variability. Some places had really nice crops and some places basically had zero crops. It makes it difficult when we're talking about like our cover crop species, they're so isolated to regions, some of them, that it just they're extremely affected by weather.

1:20 So, let's just say Elbon cereal rye for instance. It's a fairly regionally specific crop. Like you're not going to grow Elbon in Indiana. Or maybe if you are, that's great for you if it's your rotation. But primarily most of the Elbon is grown in central western Oklahoma and central western Kansas.

1:42 And you know, this year they just they had everything but what they needed.

1:50 From getting very minimal rainfall all winter to super warm temperatures in February. I mean, that stuff was breaking dormancy early and then a super big extreme cold snap, not just a light freeze, but an extreme cold snap in the middle of March. And then you just kind of pair all that together with lack of rain up until harvest.

2:19 Yeah, when you don't want it and then it starts raining. So it was the worst possible situation for that Elbon crop this year. You know, we had one of our growers planted like a thousand acres of Elbon and he harvested 1,300 bushels out of that thousand acres. Now, I know he didn't run the combine across all those acres. He just had one field to get some seed stock so he could go again next year, but they're just abandoning stuff. They started in May and they're still abandoning it now because they can't get the combine through it because the crabgrass has taken it over.

2:55 So we're seeing a lot of pressure on that market right now and that one probably has the highest percentage of price increase over last year.

3:18 It was like 23 or 24% wasn't it? 33% off of last year increase.

3:26 Which sounds like a lot and it is a lot. Like don't take me wrong. That's a huge price increase, but what we keep telling people is like Elbon is a niche cereal. Not everybody has to plant Elbon. So that's good. You know, we can reduce our seeding rates compared to Haslet because the seed size and I'm sure the seed's going to be super small this year the way things are looking. So there are other factors to play into it, but yeah, that's what we're seeing.

3:57 So big increase in the Elbon rye, but not so much with the other, the northern rye, the Cardinal rye, the hybrid rye, second generation hybrid. What on there?

4:11 Yeah, that market is fairly stable. It ticked up a little bit following some of these early harvest wheat prices. But our price is up like 7% over last year. And honestly, most of that is in freight.

4:33 It is definitely causing. So people can still get pretty inexpensive, affordable rye. It's just not going to be the Elbon type for this year.

4:43 So good to have options, good to have options there. What about the cattle guy? Because cattle are such a hot commodity right now. A lot of people are going to want to be planting forages for grazing. Triticale is probably one of the best forages, forage options for fall planting. What's that supply and market doing?

5:03 Yeah, that supply and market isn't

5:06 Is not much different than the Elbon market for a stack of reasons, again. So that crop does get grown in multiple places. It's grown in the intermountain, Pacific Northwest, out east, north, south. So it is spread around the country.

5:26 But there are small pockets of growers that grow it. And when you start to pile small pockets of growers together, and you have like one crop failure, say the panhandle of Texas. They had the same problems that western Oklahoma had this year. So their crop was very, very minimal. Anybody that had dryland acres, you know, west of Interstate 35, those crops aren't looking very good.

5:55 So when you start to pull out those production pieces and tag that on to freight, that triticale price is coming up, too. It's not coming up as high as Elbon or as much but definitely feeling it.

6:12 And the thing with a lot of this triticale, almost all of it is protected variety, so it's not everybody that can just go out and plant it for seed production. You have to have a contract, you have to have a license. And so that limits the number of acres that get put in the ground.

6:27 Yeah, you can't just plant registered seed. Like, you've got to start at the right place and get started. So yeah, and then, you know, you might have somebody call you and say, 'Hey, this is too late for me to hay. Can I harvest this?' Well, the rules clearly say no. We can't just pick up acres like that.

6:49 Best advice you give people on triticale is if you know you're going to need some, get it spoken for early cuz I suspect even with increased prices, there'll be a lot of people, including ourselves, that are probably going to sell out of that.

7:02 Yeah, definitely. I would say anybody that is considering what I would call a premium forage wintertime cereal. And that could go all the way to forage wheat, winter barley, winter oats. Like, you need to be planning ahead for that. If you know you're going to have acres of that, go ahead and get that locked in early. You know, it's not a scare tactic. We hope that we have enough to carry all season. But, if you are counting on that for your rotation, it would be very wise to go ahead and get that figured out.

7:35 So, so you talked about winter barley and winter oats, what are those supplies looking like?

7:42 So, our winter barley supply is looking decent. It's pending some quality stuff. I mean, with thin crops and late freezes, oftentimes gives way to weeds. And then it's just a battle. It's been a battle the whole way. But, I think we will have some nice winter barley supply, beardless forage types. And then our Cossack winter oats, it's too early to tell still, which is kind of weird to say the 30th of June, you know, the last day of the month, but it looks like we should have a decent supply of those Cossack oats, but got probably 30 more days before you really know.

8:23 Yeah. Yeah, it's a late maturing crop. And and wheat, what is the what is the outlook look like.

8:30 You know, the premium type wheats, not just going out and getting bin run wheat and planting it, which you know, again, isn't necessarily legal. You need to make you understand the legalities around doing that, but for the wheat that we have access to and are selling as cover crops, what's that looking like?

8:52 Yeah, so if you're looking for a decent beardless forage wheat, there's going to be pockets of the country that are going to feel a lot of pressure on this. Like, I could see Texas and down south feeling a lot of pressure in this market. I don't think it's going to be as accessible. I don't think you're going to be able to just load up and pick some up from your local seed company, because there was a lot of crops that were just basically abandoned.

9:19 You know, up north may not be as tight of a crunch, but I think the biggest thing is, you know, planning ahead for it, making sure that if you're going to ship it and have to get some shipped, just to count that into your planning for getting it planted. I could see it getting short. You know, you talked about triticale if our supply happens to run out, that beardless wheat is the next most winter hardy cereal that we carry. So, I think that there's going to be some people that flip over to that.

9:52 Yeah, for beardless type and because rye is going to be more winter hardy. But, if you're grazing, you really want the beardless types, ideally. So, this is kind of a strange year because we see these cereals, you know, some have taken a bigger jump than others. But, the legumes, which typically have a

10:11 lot more volatility, they haven't moved nearly as much. What's going on with winter peas, hairy vetch, some of the clovers?

10:19 Yeah, that's what's been really interesting even into like the brassicas. Most other cover crop species only changed by a factor of freight, which is, like we talked about, very small on some of the small seeded stuff.

10:37 Yeah. But, yeah, the legumes stayed fairly steady. They had a pretty decent pulse harvest last year for the fall type stuff or this spring. Since we moved to the production model that we're trying to produce for the following year, not the year we need it, harvest those seeds earlier, it works out pretty well. And as a matter of fact, like our hairy vetch, it's down a little bit. So, hopefully that's positive insight for some of these guys.

11:09 Yeah, to talk about something that's less expensive this year than it was last year in this economy is kind of an amazing thing. And that's strictly because our growers had good years last year. They produced really good crops. And by the way, I'm convinced that we, when I say we, us and in grower network, are probably the largest growers of hairy vetch in North America, I would guess. We grow a lot of hairy vetch. Zack, talk about why we spend so much time, effort, and money growing our own vetch here in the US, and it's mostly grown in Northern Montana, some of it's coming

13:30 Here and it just thrives in that climate.

13:33 Yeah, I tell people all the time, you know, with hairy vetch, because most people that plant hairy vetch, they need it to overwinter. They're counting on it overwintering. And that comes down to two factors. One is genetics. You can have really good genetics for winter hardiness. And there is a lot of good genetics in that. But the other part is where it's grown, because you can have really good genetics, but grow it in the south where it's not subjected to really harsh cold temperatures, and eventually it will epigenetically change to not having a lot of winter hardiness. But when you grow it in northern Montana, our guy that grows a lot of that vetch is, you know, what an hour from Canada. So he's way up there.

14:18 It is a harsh environment and it's got to be cold hardy to survive. So he's got the combination of good genetics, really cold temperatures that are weeding out any of the weak stuff. And so the stuff that survives is pretty darn hardy stuff.

14:33 And you mentioned we're trying to work a year ahead. So a lot of the vetch we're selling right now was harvested last year, which is actually way better vetch because it has less hard dormant seed. That seed has gone through its natural maturing processes. And so, you know, that's one of the biggest reasons people don't plant hairy vetch is it has 8, 10, 12% hard dormant seed. I was just looking at our test the other day and they're 1, 2, 3% hard dormant seed because it's a year old.

15:06 Yep. Yeah, and some of that is is the

15:08 Genetics, too. I mean, we have kind of kept back and continued to improve upon that. You know, we do more of that natural selection type genetics.

15:19 But still, yeah, I've seen hairy vetch tests like they're reading 18% hard seed, hard dormant seed, and what I remember—this is when I first started selling cover crops—I was very cautious to hairy vetch because if you plant something with that much hard seed someplace where you might have wheat in your rotation and you see it, the joke always was, well, you plant hairy vetch and your grandkids will have hairy vetch.

15:48 Yeah, so it's a good product all around. I mean, it's a good thing.

15:53 How about winter peas, some of the winter clovers?

15:57 Yeah, most of them have stayed fairly stable, you know. Winter peas is again right in line with last year. No big crazy changes. You may have a few specialty clovers that might go up a little bit, but your crimsons and your nitrogen fixation, other berseem clovers, those are very consistent. Red looks like it's going to be fairly consistent. Most of the people are harvesting their clovers right now, so hopefully we'll get that market completely tied down, but I'm pretty comfortable with where it's at right now.

16:38 Okay. And then you, we talked about brassicas just a little bit, but do you

16:43 Do you foresee any price changes, supply issues with radishes, turnips, collards, rape seed?

16:52 I don't see any big supply issues right now. I think most companies, especially our growers that we're sourcing those name varieties from, I think they're really good growers. That's what pairs a good retail seed company to that is getting really good growers. So I don't see anything that's going to be crazy short or just like a shock to the system.

17:19 Yeah, and a lot of those acres are either under irrigation or in fairly wet areas. So there's generally less supply chain disruptions in those products because of that.

17:31 Well, any last closing thoughts to people here? It sounds like we're going to have pretty good seed supplies. Some of it's going to be up some and some are staying steady. Some have gone down, but what would be your recommendation to people if they're thinking about fall cover crops right now?

17:48 Yeah, I would say don't be discouraged if you see a high number on something. If you're getting a quote for cereal rye and maybe you're not getting it from us and you get a number that's like, 'Oh, this is very painful.' Like just kind of look and ask questions. Make sure you get what you're trying to pay for because you know, you could get some Hazlet that's being priced as Elbon, but you don't need to be paying Elbon price for a northern rye.

18:15 So just be mindful of that. And then we say this from a sales perspective because it makes sales and operations so much easier. And sometimes it's kind of a joke, but like if you're thinking you're going to have a cover crop or a forage crop specifically in your rotation this year, start making those plans. Like okay, you know, you pick up new acres, sure that can be a surprise, but let's work through our rotation, make those plans.

18:42 I would advocate for you to start making those plans middle of July. That sounds crazy early, but those crops are going to be getting pulled off. You're going to be busy in a combine. Just make those plans. Let us know how we can help you so we can get it. Make sure you get what you want.

18:59 And the other thing I would encourage people to think about too because a lot of our customers do have cattle. You're going to be running cattle on that. Even if you spend, let's say 30 to 45 dollars an acre on a cover crop, that's only 10 to 15 pounds that you're putting on your feeder calves or stalker calves to pay for that. That's not much. So you know, the value of spending a little extra to get the premium forages for grazing, well worth it right now with where cattle prices are.

19:32 I just, you know, kind of keep all that in mind as you go through it. But folks, you know, we're here to help. We've got a lot of seed, but we do anticipate having quite a bit of demand this fall. So we'd love to hear from you sooner rather than later so we can help you out in getting a cover crop mix put together for your needs for this fall. So thanks everybody and we hope to hear from you soon.